Another fringe lunatic? #1

Concerns about peak oil were, until recently, often dismissed as an obsession for fringe lunatics only. You hear this less often recently, as episodes like the Russian gas supply crisis and the wildly fluctuating oil price have led people to look more seriously at energy security. But it is a charge that still deters some people from looking more deeply at peak oil's implications, even if they have heard the phrase.

So it's interesting to note when each weighty insitution starts to address the issue seriously. I suspect we're nearing a tipping point in public and institutional awareness of energy insecurity.

The latest recruit? The Local Government Association.

Its report last month, Creating Green Jobs: developing local low-carbon economies, seems to show that the issue is being taken increasingly seriously there, as these extracts show:

This revolution [in energy use and supply] will also be driven by volatile and rising fossil fuel costs and concern about fuel security, particularly if oil production peaks. As oil and gas prices increase, the economic incentives to develop low-carbon goods and services intensify.

...

There will be impacts on existing sectors - forestry and agriculture, construction and refurbishment, travel and tourism, distribution and logistics.

...

There is a growing awareness of the risks associated with dependence on imported fossil fuels and the threat posed by peak oil. As we write there is a stand-off between Russia and Ukraine that has cut off gas supplies to many countries in Europe.

So if you find yourself slandered as a fringe lunatic for espousing peak oil, now you can ask your accuser: "Is the Local Government Association a fringe lunatic, too?"

Transition Westcombe - upcoming article for the Westcombe News

Below is an article that will hopefully go out when the Westcombe News' first edition of 2009 lands on doormats.

Blackheath and Westcombe today look remarkably similar to the way they did 99 years ago, thanks to the careful preservation of our buildings and parks. But it is only a surface similarity.

What we haven’t preserved is the innate self-reliance of our forebears, brought to life for me in a 1909 “pocket guide” by the then district traders’ association.

Bespoke shoes were made and repaired in Montpelier Vale. GA Rose delivered his “noted farmhouse bread” by horsedrawn wagon within three miles of Blackheath village.

Henry C Clarke ran stables at Westcombe Park rail station (wedding carriages a speciality). Aylett Brothers supplied ‘home-killed’ meat. Ebenezer Smith made a striking figure atop the horse-drawn wagon essential to his Tranquil Vale cabinet-making business.

A steam laundry in Lee was the place to send curtains and linen. A blacksmith on Old Dover Road was near neighbour to a cycle manufacturer. Saddlers, carpenters, watchmakers, printers, blind-makers, milliners and tailors galore were on the doorstep. There was even a dairy farm on Old Dover Road supplying milk and butter.

If our community’s needs are a cake, much of its base in 1909 was sourced inside a few miles’ radius. Its icing, the luxuries we can survive without, came from afar. Now the situation has flipped: our basic needs are freighted thousands of miles. What is made locally is largely the icing on our cake – trinkets and luxuries. We depend for survival on people and places we’ve never seen.

The reason for this revolutionary reversal is the black stuff: oil. Mind-bogglingly energy-dense, it is a unique boon in human history. One barrel gives as much power as 12 people toiling physically for you for an entire year. No wonder every aspect of our lives and economy has come to rely upon it.

But increasingly, men and women who should be listened to – particularly ex oil consultants, engineers and analysts, freed from corporate pressure to talk up the industry – are warning that the end of cheap, easily extracted oil is very close indeed.

This is not to say the last drop of oil will be sucked from the ground, but that between 2005 and 2015 – only pinpointable in hindsight – we will be unable to pump more out than we had the year before, commencing a difficult decline. In an economy predicated on constant growth, dependent on ever-increasing energy supply, a new age of scarce, expensive oil will have consequences for every aspect of our lives, from our commute to work to our Kenyan mange tout and the heating of our homes.

No alternative comes close to the incredible productivity of oil. Wind, tidal, wave: not enough power or not consistent. Nuclear: tens of thousands of stations would be required, and uranium would be depleted in a decade. Hydrogen saps more energy than you gain in output. Biofuels have the same problem, and gobble up precious farmland or forests. Even an optimal combination would be just a small life raft as we begin to cope without cheap, abundant oil.

There is a movement growing, often called ‘Transition Towns’, which has two messages: that it is better to prepare than be taken by surprise, and that a return to local food, local culture, and a reliance on local community can also mean, in many ways, a better quality of life. The movement aims to bring people together to plan how to make their communities less oil-dependent and more resilient.

It is not a harking back to a mythical golden age, but an acknowledgement that we need to relearn a great deal – and probably fast. There is a huge amount of work and reskilling to do, but where the transition idea is taking hold it is capturing people’s imagination and unleashing real creativity and enthusiasm.

If you would be interested in helping to start a ‘Transition Westcombe’ group, do get in touch via transitionwestcombe@googlemail.com.

If you want to learn more, visit transitionculture.org and transitionwestcombe.blogspot.com

Sit back and watch

Okay, I think we're building up a decent bank of 'welcome to peak oil' resources in different formats, including hopefully whichever format best suits your preferred way of taking in information.

I've recommended DVDs, and then last time I linked to a very good written summary of the peak oil issue. Here instead is something online that you can immediately sit back and listen to. This chap, Chris Martenson, has a remarkable skill for communicating sometimes complex subjects in a human, accessible way that doesn't insult your intelligence.

Click here for his audio slideshow.

If you like his style, then look around his site. That link took you to one chapter of what is in fact a remarkable series of presentations on many interlinked subjects, not just peak oil. He looks at problems of debt, population and money supply - so if you're hungry for more, there's plenty there.

Well, soon I hope to localise this blog and do a bit of very speculative musing about what are the strengths and weaknesses of our neighbourhood, Westcombe Park and the surrounding area, in dealing with the challenges of peak oil. I'd love to hear others' ideas on that, because each of us will have different perceptions, different views of what opportunities our local area offers and different levels of knowledge about our community. I certainly don't know enough, and I look forward to learning from other Westcombe Parkers.

One of the best peak oil 'primers'

In the last post I directed readers to some DVD resources - and again I highly recommend them.

But I realise that that is not a great draw for those who are unconvinced and understandably might not want to go to the expense and effort of ordering them at this stage. And not too helpful for those who are eager to get more information right this minute.

I've been looking for a great, relatively brief introduction to the subject of peak oil, one that explains things clearly in laymen's terms and which answers most of those questions and 'buts' that bubble up in most of us on hearing about this subject.

So here's one of the best I've come across so far: Click here.

It contains a lot of clear graphs and diagrams which really help me to get a handle on the subject - including this one, which, when I first saw a version of it elsewhere, really brought home for me what a strange blip in human history we are living in - and yet one which, because it is many human lifetimes long, seems normal and eternal while you're inside it.



As always, if you would like to get involved in setting up a Transition Westcombe project - it doesn't yet exist! - get in touch at transitionwestcombeATgooglemail.com.

Where to begin?

I hope to write specifically about Westcombe / Greenwich soon, and how we might apply 'transition' ideas here, but at this very early 'mulling it over' stage, it's probably more appropriate to offer some resources to those who are interested and want to know more about the issues. Once we get talking, our focus will no doubt turn to the specific opportunities and problems facing our own neighbourhood.

So today I simply want to recommend some films which do a very good job of introducing the peak oil concept - and one which looks at possible solutions.

First up, 'The End of Suburbia'. This was available in almost full length on You Tube until a few days ago - now it has disappeared, and only trailers are available on that site. However, it can be bought on Amazon and elsewhere, and it is thoroughly recommended.

Next up is 'A Crude Awakening', which covers similar ground but is probably more comprehensive in covering the technical details - but in an accessible way. I know this is available to rent on Love Film or Sofa Cinema if you are a member.

Third is one I haven't yet seen myself but have heard great things about: 'The Power of Community - How Cuba Survived Peak Oil'. This is probably a necessary pep-up after the gloom of the first two films, as it shows how Cuba survived its own dry run for global peak oil. The country had to deal very quickly with a sudden loss of oil supply in the early 90s, thanks to the international blockade. It achieved remarkable results, and now 60% of Havana's food needs are met from inside the city itself, from gardens and community food-growing schemes.

If you want to get involved in setting up a 'Transition Westcombe', email transitionwestcombeATgooglemail.com.